Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Consumer Confidence at 6 year high? Foreclosures up 58%?

Something doesn't seem right. I acknowledge that I have a negative bias on the stock market and the economy and desperately try to stay open minded. At the same time, how in the world does consumer confidence report a 6 year high with the mess that is occurring in the real estate markets?

Well the CNBC analysis says that it is because employment is so strong and the sub-prime mortgage crisis is well contained. Well, that explains that one to me. I guess??

Countrywide the nation's largest mortgage lender says that the defaults are spreading to the prime loans. The sub-prime loan crisis (clearly in the early innings) doesn't sound so "well-contained." The estimated 2 millionj foreclosures this year should stay "wel-contained."

What about that strong employment? The government actually estimates a good portion of those created jobs each month through their own analysis. In other words, they make up job growth. John Mauldin reports that 86% of the jobs that have been reported this year have been created out of thin air by the government.

The bottom line is that the government can spin the numbers at will and create a fantasy economy. The CNBC analysts can tell you don't worry about it and just go back to sleep. One analyst actually said last week that there was clearly "no reason for the sell-off." As Gordon Gecko said in Wall Street," The whole world must be off its rocker." By the way for all of you Wall Street movie fans, there will be a sequel.

Has I have written many times on this site, there are clearly big problems in the markets right now. These are foundational problems. It pays to think differently and not follow the advice of those who clearly have a lot to lose in the event that this bull turns into a bear. That would be every politician, every fund manager who can only invest for a bull market, every financial advisor who thinks that we are in a perpetual bull market, and anyone on CNBC.